Racing to the Bottom?

Recently, I caught an article in the Seattle Times about the lack of racial diversity in many leading cities in the country. What got this report attention is that other than three, the rest of the top 10 large cities for high percentage of non-hispanic whites are cities in northern states. More surprisingly, as you drill into the list, 4 of these northern cities are known for their so-called progressive ideals: Seattle, Portland, Minneapolis, and Colorado Springs.
This article is a great example of the dangers of poorly defined indicators that have no reference; it offers little understanding of the phenomenon - geo spatially, over time and across cultures. It mentions only in passing that Portland has remained at the top for decades, but has the total number of minorities been falling or is it the same as it was in 1970? For Seattle, there is some discussion that it has risen in the ranks (by percentage) of less diverse places over the past decade – but since the city’s population has been increasing at the same time, could it be that the actual numbers have been increasing, but perhaps at a slower rate than the growth of total population? Or, that thanks to the economic boom in the Seattle region, many minorities in the city proper have sold their inner city properties and have moved to higher-quality and lower priced housing in suburban communities? In fact, this trend is reflected across most metropolitan areas in the country.
Selected appropriately, data can be compiled and measured against each other to tell compelling stories; and in fact become indicators that reflect our values. There are dangers in presenting data alone as indicators, since they fail to spur meaningful and fruitful discussion, policy or action.
It appears that this article was intending to refer to social intolerance (and I was surprised to find that Seattle was right behind Louisville, Kentucky) but social trends need as much qualitative data as quantitative reasoning to establish trends in arenas that are a reflection of personal experiences. In fact according to Dan Westneat of the Seattle Times for another indicator compiled by the Census, called dissimilarity that measures geographical integration, Seattle ranks very high.
What struck me was that so many of the top 10 cities cited in the article have a reputation as leading Green cities in the country. This bolsters the argument and growing resentment towards environmentalism that it is indeed a white middle class value. It provides greater reason for socially more progressive cities to continue to focus on their social infrastructure than the environment. Thankfully cities like Oakland, among the top 10 most diverse communities are showing how this need not be the path. Oakland is leveraging its diversity to emphasize the environmentalism-jobs connection in a positive way, thanks to the work of activists such as Van Jones.
This article also rubs salt into the wound that is often brought up by the Seattle Times. There has been much discussion about how institutions struggle to maintain their high integration numbers with the passage of a poorly defined law in 1998. I-200 prohibited for the first time the past practice of “preferential treatment” based on race or gender in public contracting, public hiring and public education. The law provides that, "The state shall not discriminate against, or grant preferential treatment to, any individual or group on the basis of race, sex, color, ethnicity, or national origin in the operation of public employment, public education, or public contracting.
New to the City at that time, this law seemed arbitrary to me since there were no references to studies that showed that having integrated contractor-teams, schools or workplaces were in any way damaging the economy. What were the indications that showed that integrating small or minority businesses in commerce was resulting in lower quality outcomes? Perhaps, there could have been improvements to how they were being implemented; but there were few facts that backed the perception that minorities in any way under performed when compared to their white counterparts in similar circumstances that include social integration, encouragement, trust and fairness. In fact, this past integration did not show a “preference” for lower standards in any way, but recognized the latent perceptions simmering across the country that links quality to race. I will contend that for a progressive city such as Seattle this integration reflected the desire to institutionalize equity, knowing that to create a tolerant society would demand nothing less.
A decade later, the damages that such a poorly thought out law can bring about are evident and much written about in our local newspapers. It is clear that left to our devices, there is a general preference for intolerance and segregation over compassion and integration. Whether it is at advanced learning schools, colleges, work place, government, the tolerant rich social infrastructure that was in place in 1990s has vanished. The leaders of the 60s movement are retiring, and along with them their values. Notable discrimination lawsuits have been filed and won against large companies, government agencies and others.
The later generations have shown little interest in integration, seeming to favor instead advancement based on race and appearances. Remote concepts such as World Trade and the Environment catch their imaginations rather than the well being of their fellow Washingtonians; immigrant or otherwise.
Seattle has become a place where the practice of social tolerance and fairness flourishes as a personal choice, without any institutionalized backing. At the same time, over the past decade discrimination has undoubtedly taken hold of this city’s historically tolerant institutions. This is more of an anecdotal observation. I wish there was research confirming this. Non-diverse Boards, companies and leadership groups make decisions that further institutionalize disparities. This is a climate in which nepotism and other ills flourish. In fact, both whites and non-whites will contend that preference based on race has become the norm in contracting, hiring, benefits among others, and forced equity is but an artifact from the past.
Dan Westneat commented that several people remarked, "So what if we are largely white?" This comment to me is an indicator of several undesirable attitudes coloring current civil society. History has shown over and over that as this intolerance takes hold a City's reputation and ability to compete in the world market is heavily compromised. While there are no numbers to indicate the amount, anecdotally I can attest that Seattle continues to draw the idealists; social, environmental and political. There is a great desire particularly among the youth to find environments that resonate with their need to create a just and fair society. In today's business climate, innovation, wealth, and progress comes in all shades and from every corner of the world. I have always wondered why Portland fared worse than Seattle in its economy. I have found few studies that have analyzed this. Could deeply seated intolerance be causing it to miss out on world class opportunities?
A decade after I-200, it is now time for Washington to see how it is faring in terms of social equity and financial justice. Has I-200 created the future that it intended to? If not, what are the unintended consequences? Are public goodies such as access to good teachers, facilities, contracts being shared equally across geographies and race or are we seeing a gradual tendency towards xenophobia or any other cultural phobia? We need our leaders to gather important data (qualitative as well) that will populate relevant indicators of social equity. The indicators must reflect our values, only then can we be assured that as a society, we can be proud of the direction we are headed.

Reimagining Energy Delivery - A 21st Century Counterpoint

What with the nuclear tragedy in Japan; mounting concerns about global warming amplifying the demand for energy; and fears of oil depletion – we simply cannot ignore the need for thoughtful planning to secure this country’s energy future. Typical debates have been mired in questions surrounding the domestic availability of a fuel and securing energy independence versus reducing carbon emissions through cleaner options such as nuclear, solar, geothermal or wind. These are valid questions.
However, policy planning should be based on a detailed analysis of data, and guided by a national debate over our goals for an energy future. The public has not been able to participate in the energy debate in the past in a meaningful manner. Therefore decisions related to this trillion-dollar industry (including billion dollar public investments) have been left to lobbyists of various energy companies and our representatives in the federal government.
A review of energy data reveals that in the past our national policies have supported the growth of domestic coal and nuclear energy, as well as imported oil and natural gas, with limited incentives for the alternative energy sectors. The early interest in hydropower was soon overshadowed by the ability to place coal-powered industries anywhere. At the same time, national policies perpetuated a system of centralized energy generation over stimulating a distributed generation portfolio.
There are some obvious reasons for these. For instance, at that time, this country boasted large manufacturing centers that needed uninterrupted and concentrated energy. Moreover the technology that would allow distributed generation was not available. These arguments, however, are no longer valid. We have a limited number of heavy industries left in this country that need such concentrated power, most of which are power plants. Though there is a need to improve storage solutions and conversion technologies for solar and wind power, even today without these improvements, they outperform most other energy sources in their lifecycle performance. Lastly, the Smart Grid Technology allows for a distributed energy system that was not feasible before.
Also, lets not forget that centralized power generation is an inefficient means of producing energy and that conservation remains the most viable and lucrative investment in the energy arena.
A review of our energy use policies for the past 60 years (described in depth in the report that CREÄ prepared for the RICS Foundation) describes the increasing inefficiencies we have tolerated in our energy generation. A fact not much known is that thanks to a number of key initiatives taken at the federal level in the late 70s, the consumption of energy by end users of the system has not increased greatly. Instead, total energy use (which includes the energy consumed as well as that used to generate energy – including that needed to burn fuel to create steam, lost in transmission or otherwise lost in generation) has more than tripled since the 1950s. In other words, it now takes more than double the amount of energy to generate what we consume. In other words, while buildings and appliances have become more efficient (and there is scope to make them even more efficient) we are actually using more energy to generate electricity and heat, primarily due to our move to huge central power plants.
As a country, we have moved away from heavy industry for a preference for the service and technology sectors (or what are popularly known as white-collar desk jobs). These desk jobs do not demand the type of energy that heavy industry does and more typically than not, follow the circadian clock. Therefore the lighting, heating and other electricity needs of these businesses could be well met by solar power. Some argue that solar power will never have the potential to fully meet a building’s energy use. However, buildings in Europe are being designed to perform at 50-55 kwh/m2a, about 1/3rd the level of the average US building. At such high efficiency levels, solar power can on its own deliver the heating, lighting and electricity needs of these buildings reliably. Depending on their building footprints, their rooftops should be able to accommodate much of the solar PV needs. There are inefficiencies related to the storage and conversion technologies for solar power. However, with continued investment and improvements in these two arenas, Solar Photovoltaic has the potential to outperform other technologies in emissions and lifecycle performance. Some argue that according to cost per unit energy delivered, solar still lags behind other energy sources. This argument is simplistic, since these discussions or data do not account for the billion-dollar subsidies that fossil fuel industries receive to offset their expenses, including research and development. Perhaps a diversion of these subsidies to solar research and development may expedite experimentation with new technologies or help enhance existing technologies. Solar power is not perfect; little is known of the impact of the reflection of the glare from the surface of solar panels. Also, concerns remain about the safety of their manufacturing and their safe disposal since the panels have mercury and lead. However, even with their carbon content (from being manufactured by fossil fuel plants) their toxic emissions are 300 times less than the typical coal burning plant.

The benefits of the other clean fuel, nuclear, such as the domestic availability of uranium and its clean emissions, are outweighed by the dangers surrounding the disposal of nuclear waste. Given the unprecedented increase in earthquakes across the globe, the decreasing availability of water that is necessary for nuclear power, and the absence of safe storage technologies, nuclear does not present a viable and safe alternative for the future. Would it really make sense to replace a 400-800 half-life material in the atmosphere (carbon dioxide) with nuclear radiation that has a half-life of 10,000 years? We simply cannot wish away these dangers.

Natural gas plants have increased in favor; yet it is a source that is only available in a limited amount domestically. The environmental impacts of the marine facilities from the import of natural gas, along with the potential damages caused during shipment of this fuel must be considered in planning for a natural gas based future.

For this country, a focused effort on energy efficiency, which in and of itself can set off billions of dollars of new technology development and services, is the easiest and most impactful investment that the government can make. Similarly, rebuilding and extending the national grid should be another focus of national policy. Lastly, allowing for distributed energy generation from renewable sources and coordinating the location of new industries with clean central power plants will secure this country’s economic future and maintain its leadership role in environmental stewardship and innovation.

So what is holding us back? For one, energy remains a very lucrative industry that the private sector would like to increasingly control. With empty coffers, the government is unable to construct, manage or maintain energy infrastructure – therefore it is reluctant to overly regulate the power industry. They would rather hand it over to the private sector than maintain their public ownership (for instance by creating new Public Utility Districts or Municipalities taking ownership). In the US, as a private business, the role of energy delivery as a public good is overshadowed by the legal necessity of generating shareholder profit. Therefore there are few incentives to promote conservation and invest in innovation since it could reduce revenue. Lastly, without a doubt, moving to a distributed energy system complicates the billing system, and raises issues of who takes responsibility for maintaining this distributed system.
In this new energy environment, utilities will have to address several important issues:
Who owns the grid and how does this owner recover costs to maintain and expand the grid? And, must each state and energy entity connect to the national grid?
Should energy utilities be for-profit entities? If so, how does it then address its impacts to the environment and who pays for these impacts? What financial tools can be put in place to fully protect the public’s interests in the energy delivery choices of private entities?
How can we decouple billing for capital costs and energy use to increase incentives for conservation and efficiency?
How can we plan for a gradual replacement of nuclear and coal technology with others that have better lifecycle performance?
How can we coordinate a revival of domestic energy policies through strategic national level energy investment? Even though science and financial analyses underscore our unsustainable energy policies, national level policies show no signs of change.
What will it take to stop the subsidies into carbon fuels and nuclear technology and move those to wind, solar and other renewable industries?

None of these are difficult questions or insurmountable problems. However, they will require a complete revision of our understanding and approach to energy; the role of utilities; and the responsibility of governments in energy delivery. Where can we find the leadership willing to engage and lead this discussion?

Geographic Information Systems Mapping for a Sustainable Future

Mapping is such an important yet overlooked exercise. With Geographic Information Systems (GIS) mapping has the power to share many stories. We have done some in-depth mapping for clients that have informed our Land Capacity Analyses for Comprehensive Plans. Gone are the days for approximating buildable lands. You can get acreage down to the last square yard if you need to. However, the quality of the mapping depends greatly on the quality of data available. It may be costly too. It may take up to 2-3 days just to set up the data to the format in which it makes sense. After that, depending on the speed of your computer system, it may take up 2-3 hours or more to generate and map a query – for instance, how much land is within 1500 feet of the mean high tide and what uses make up that land? It is evident that few have really explored the power of maps to influence good city planning and design. For sustainable planning, we need to make sure that we understand and map all the forces that make up the city’s environmental framework. This goes for activities above ground that have the potential to affect environmental performance – within city limits as well as from surrounding jurisdictions. If I was working in a city at the bottom of the hill, I would definitely want to map the permeability of development further uphill. Every time that land gets paved over, my jurisdiction will be affected. Similarly, I would want to know about functions that are underground. What is happening to the water table? What are the limits to my aquifer? How can I safely infiltrate water to recharge the aquifer at the same rate as consumption? Similarly, I would want to account for social disparities in my community. Is poverty concentrated in my community? Do my community’s investment choices correspond to the location of impoverished areas? Are they persistently deprived of investment? It is easy enough to map public infrastructure and investment to generate a map for social equity. Google Earth Outreach does just that and more. Several great resources for mapping are the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Federal Emergency Management Agency, (FEMA), Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and private companies like Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI) and Google Earth. Nonprofits like the World Resource Institute and the World Wildlife Fund and smaller ones such as the Nutty Birdwatcher, like many others, provide a wealth of information on the natural world, bird migration paths, compromised ecosystems and others. Information has become so sophisticated now that one can click on a parcel can provide you with all the layers of information attached to that parcel. Earlier the cost of servers to process this magnitude of data was exorbitant. Now with cloud computing, this cost can be lowered significantly. Many mapping departments across the country are feeling the brunt of diminishing public funds. However, for a sustainable future, mapping is a critical source for data, decision-making and equity. City, county and State governments have an opportunity to streamline and inform good decision-making by investing in their data and mapping capabilities, can you afford not to if you are seeking a sustainable future?

Planning for Resilient Communities, Japan Disaster and Recovery

The Japan tsunami is a horrific disaster reminiscent of so many similar events over the past year (remember Haiti, Chile, Christchurch 1, and 2?). It brings up many emotions such that it is hard to be objective about the event and ensuing disaster. Yet, how can one be critical of the population living in coastal areas when most land inhabited by human settlement is prone to some disaster or another on a periodic basis? It is a relief seeing the relatively minor damage in major cities such as Tokyo, though it is of little consolation when contrasted against the pictures of devastated smaller towns. One would like to think that Tokyo was safe more due to its updated building codes than its relative distance from the epicenter. Even within the Miyagi prefecture, though inundated by a muddy river of soil, seawater and debris, many buildings survived. Can building codes and engineering provide the solutions to withstanding natural disasters? Japan showed that in addition, early warning and emergency preparedness played a very important part in reducing the number of calamities caused by the event.
Emergency preparedness, though, is also tied to information. Critical information emerges if we mix environmental science with mathematical probability analysis. The map of the world that could emerge would rate each region by its susceptibility to disaster, perhaps by compiling the information collected by USGS in their 1-pager earthquake summary across geography and time. This susceptibility could be a measure of the frequency as well as the force of occurrence. Maybe then we can come up with sane development policies that first address areas that are most vulnerable, and gradually work their way down the list. Evacuating large populations from the most vulnerable areas could be the first thing that comes to mind, but perhaps it should be the last resort – after shoring, engineering, and emergency preparedness have been fully explored. Is there much inhabitable land left in the world to accommodate such large forced migrations? More importantly, how would that be politically palatable? This recent article discusses how Japan became an expert in Disaster Preparation. There are some good resources that provide information on historic occurrences of disasters at a subcontinent level. The Annual Disaster Statistical Review released by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), is a great international overview of disasters. The International Disaster Database (EM-DAT) provides a searchable database of disasters by country. Good policy is driven by reliable and routinely updated data. While it is easy to approach emergency preparedness in a draconian manner and require either relocation of communities or the most stringent building codes, however in real life, codes for emergency preparedness (from tsunamis, earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, and volcanic inundation) must carefully balance affordability and life safety. If focused on life safety rather than reducing property damage, the development costs of stringent codes can be reduced while keeping casualties to the minimum. For a sustainable future, however, we must continuously seek to maximize existing infrastructure and communities and resist the urge to develop the last few remaining natural areas in the world. For a country as conscious about sustainability as Japan, it will be interesting to see how it changes its approach to development in these vulnerable communities to avoid a similar level of disaster in the future, or whether it even thinks that that would be a reasonable goal to strive for.

The Wonderful World of Salvage

In a recent remodeling project, we tried our hands at re-using salvaged materials. I have to say, this did not make the contractor happy. Also, he was right, increased fees for labor overrode the amount we saved in the material, in most cases. In the Puget Sound region there are three large companies that work in this arena. For no cost, they will go to a construction site and remove the salvaged materials that could potentially find a new home at another site. Visiting these stores, Re-Store, Earthwise, and Second Use is a delight. Over time, you will find that each has its unique strengths; one has the best selection of salvaged granite or marble, while the other has a wide variety of windows; one might resell kitchen cabinets in great condition, whereas another may offer the greater variety of bathroom furnishings. It is interesting to note that only one of these establishments is a non-profit: the Re-Store has stores in both Seattle and Bellingham. The other two are set up as for-profits. One thing I learnt in the world of salvage material is that persistence may yield great results. I found the right set of kitchen cabinets for nearly 1/6th of the price I would pay in the market. I found windows and solid wood doors that matched the older style of the home for a ridiculously low price. In the same way, I found inexpensive molding, lights, paint and bathroom fixtures. For a contractor, these stores can be a great find. For the non-handy person, please make sure that you have truck and a great tape measure; for it will be necessary to measure each detail of your purchase to make sure it fits your project. I quickly learnt that buying and installing doors in their frame is the way to go rather than trying to fit a panel into an existing frame; have a way to test electrical fixtures prior to their purchase; when buying tiles, make sure that your set comprises of the same type of tiles whether ceramic, porcelain or glass. Contractors cannot be convinced to mix tiles, since they are known to vary by millimeters in their thickness, beveling and size. If price is a factor, salvaged materials may just get you the look at affordable price. Just make sure that either you are handy or that you have a contractor willing to go the extra mile, like I did.

Logical Green Building Features for the Northwest

One would presume that building in a cold temperate region such as the Pacific Northwest would create its own genre of traditional architecture. Living in a cold damp climate raises issues with mold inside a house and moss on its roof. It demands that indoor heating is turned on for nearly 9 months of the year and that it is rare that one walks in without bringing in traces of mud. If one was to design for these conditions what elements of a house would naturally emerge? The first three that come to mind are a roof design that either reduced or altogether avoided a north slope -- no moss to clean with toxic chemicals or zinc strips. The second would be a closed foyer. This would help minimize the loss of conditioned air (heated or cooled) from the interior. The last feature would be either a small manual window or a mechanically ventilated opening to bring in a constant, though small, amount of fresh air to reduce the buildup of moisture within the house. Many old homes have a generous porch that does much of the work in keeping mud out, but a foyer does double duty by reducing unnecessary heat (or cooling) loss. Similarly while many old homes are naturally drafty, this uncontrolled loss of heat is more damaging than ventilation that can be initiated and shut when needed. Lastly, modern buildings with flat roofs can altogether avoid the mossy north slope, but for those partial to traditional pitched roofs, try a design where the north face extends vertically to a gable roof ridge to achieve the same results.

Circuitscape GIS Tool Highlight by Starla Delorey

Circuitscape is an open source tool that applies circuit theory to identify connectivity conservation. It is currently being used to identify and prioritize wildlife corridors. Existing habitat areas are used as sources and sinks, cost factors are used to create a resistance map, and the tool calculates the probability of movement across the landscape. Gene flow can also be modeled using voltage.

In urban planning we could use this tool to model pedestrian traffic. We could identify the probability a community will be able to walk to a resource and use that information to identify areas we could improve. There must be many more applications of this tool. Please comment if you think of any!

For more information on this tool go to: